Igni ferroque

The U.S.'s plans to use air strikes against Iranian uranium enrichment facilities and nuclear reactors, is a very bad neocon wet dream. This opinion is based on a cursory analysis of the "unintended" consequences of said air strikes.

Many sites are underground bunkers, which the administration is targeting with B61 mod 11 nuclear weapons. While the yield is around 10k tons (TNT equivalent), the issue is the radioactive fallout. I have worked in the nuclear arms industry, and all underground test are performed within a reinforced concrete structure that is then buried. Notice there is no entrance hole! Any hole would be a path of least resistance that would allow the resulting plasma to escape. The effect would be similar to a filled balloon's gas escaping through the input nipple. Hence a burrowing nuclear weapon like the B61 mod 11 would vent skyward (presuming that this was delivered by air), thus assuring that some radioactive material would reach the upper atmosphere and irradiate the entire planet. The heavier fallout would fall more locally on Iran, Iraq, Europe, China, Afghanistan and Israel the actual levels and pattern would depend heavily on weather patterns, time of day etc..

Jangle Uncle was a subsurface test of a 1.2kt yield device. The purpose was to model the effects of a 23kt ground penetrating weapon. The picture below shows the results. A B61 mod 11 weapon is about eight times the yield of the test. The yeild is about twice that of a GBU-28.

In the case of a successful hit with non nuclear weapon, like the GBU-28, on an underground uranium enrichment plant, depending on angle of entry, size of any secondary detonations, etc. radioactive material may exit through the penetrator entry path. While it is not a certainty that radioactive materials will reach the upper atmosphere, it is likely that radioactive material would be released.

From the very cursory analysis above, it is clear that the use of a B61 mod 11 weapon on Iranian targets holds great risk for those few allied countries we have in Europe and the Middle-East as well as any non-combatants (including Israeli citizen, Iranian citizens, and Russian citizens) to be of any use. However, without the B61 mod 11 the U.S. will not be capable of destroying the underground facilities that we do know of. There is the additional risk that we do not know the locations of all the enrichment facilities, and reactors.

What I find offensive about this subject is that when the Israelis bombed (see Operation Opera) the Osirak light-water nuclear materials testing reactor (MTR), they did so before the fuel had been loaded into the reactor for fear of fallout, but no talking head, blogger, or leader has given even cursory thought to the consequences of attacking a functional uranium enrichment facility, or reactor loaded with fuel. Apparently, It is very easy to advocate air strikes to "safeguard" people, but not so easy to seriously assess the consequences of these air strikes. It is precisely the "unintended consequences" (read lack of appreciation for the effects of one's actions) that will cause harm to the very people we are attempting to "safeguard". While Chernobyl was an accident, using many B61 mod 11 weapons on Iran would be premeditated murder and fratricide.

The only real course of action is to honestly negotiate with Iran. This means negotiations without preconditions. This means sitting down at the table with Iran before they capitulate to the U.S.'s demands to cease and desist uranium enrichment.