Igni ferroque

In Mr. Johnson;s post "What If The Surge Is Working?"
I aggree that we should not emmulate the republicans in any ways, but I do not see that the surge is working.  While some progressives disscuss redeployment, or widthdrawl, not a single person left or right has stated what is required for any possible success to occur in the Iraq, or the region:  a deep level of appreciation for the history, culture, and people of the region (aka T. E. Lawrence).  Now, some will say that this is more liberal/lefty shite.  I say that I am citing the only successful source of strategy: "The Art of War" by Sun Tzu. 


Master Sun says that the best outcome in a conflict is to win without fighting.  This can mean that we send proxies, or negotiate, or export our culture etc..  This is predicated on the concept of knowing your enemy and knowing yourself (to parapharase Sun Tzu).  The only real solution at this time is to remove all visible military forces from Iraq.  A good example of what this means is look at the Al-Quds and the Iraninan Revolutionary Gurad.  They are in Iraq, but are invisible (they do not wear a uniform, they speak the language, they are intimate with the culture).  The Iranians have at most a battalion of these troops in Iraq.  And they are very effective.


Ideally, we should deploy two divisons (about 20-30k troops) of people with comprable skills.  This allows roughly an A-Team (ie. a Green Beret unit)  to be deployed with every major tribe.  This is due to the fact that Iraq has devolved away from publilc justice into private revenge (ie. devolved from a nation state to a collection of tribes).  It will take about two years to restablish the trust in public justice that would allow Iraq to become a nation state again.  However, this state may not be the democratic beacon that is currently envisioned.  Still it is the only way that the U.S. will have any influence on what kind of entity Iraq will become. 


The surge is not working, and will never work.  The ink blot strategy failed in Vietnam and will fail here.  This is because we do not have the requisite force levels with the requisite skills (see above), or the time to accomplish the current objective of the stabilizing the region.  Further, our opponents adapt faster than we as a nation state (with this current administration) are capable of.  Any top down organization (this includes the conventional military, as well as any authoritarian types) will not be capable of Observing Orienting and Deciding quickly enough to compete.  As proof, one should study the most recent Isreali war in Lebanon. 


Basically, we can either face reality, which is that we started an overt conflict without knowing our oppostion and, therefore, we failed before we fired the first shot, or we can live in fantasy land and continue to spend blood and treasure (as well as deepen the problem by killing civilians and promoting injustice ie. accelerating the fall to barbarism).  Marine General Mattis before his second deployment to Iraq understood that if the Marine's casualties exceed that of the civilian population then they were succeeding.  This mirrors Britain's experience in Ireland.  Since the surge started, we have not seen a slow down in the civilian casualties.  The U.S. troop's casualties are miniscule compared to that of Iraqi civilians.  By any measure the surge is failing.  One may argue that there are communities where it is working, but this is an illusion.  Any sane OpFor will understand that an occuping force can have local successes, but that said occupier cannot, by definition, be everywhere all the time. 


This brings the last point I'd like to make.  This administration believes in the Machiavellian concept that it is better to be feared that loved.  Sun Tzu's answer is that when one is feared people will plot against you when you are not there, but when loved people will see to your best interest when you are not there.  We have promulgated a policy of fear and intimidation (Aby Gharib).  There is no military solution  to this.  Even with two division of Green Berets in country, there is now a climate of fear and hatred toward the U.S.. 


Again the only solution is to get the fuck out of Dodge now!  Maybe, leave some SF troops and Field Officers behind, concentrate on meaningful humanitarian relief, talk to Irag's neighbors to find a solution that will benefit the Iraqis not the U.S. oil companies.  This is a course of action that over a long time period may restore trust in the U.S. and allow for a positive future for the region.